Continuation of Boundary Commission Report

to the National Spiritual Assembly of the Bahá'ís of the United Kingdom

(delivered at the Warrington 'Committees' Conference on 15 January 2000)



To return to see the first half of this report click here.

To return to the Boundary commission main menu contents click here.



Contents

(repeated for convenience)

Section C - Implications of applying Scenario 1

Q. How many 'new' LSA areas would there be?

A. There are now about 114 rural districts in English County councils ( average 85,000), 6 Rural English Unitary Councils and 9 Welsh Rural Councils (average 94,000) to be subdivided. We therefore for this scenario estimate 6 'new' LSA areas to each old rural LSA area
In Scenario 1 then we could expect; about a new total of 775 rural LSA areas in England & Wales. + 13 Welsh urban + 40 English urban unitary + 160 urban districts in English CC + 36 Metropolitan Boroughs + 33 London Boroughs = 1,057.
In Scenario 1 the new total (order of magnitude of) LSA areas in England & Wales would be about 1,057.
Scenario 1 proposes no change to Northern Ireland (see C2 below) ie 26 LSA areas in Northern Ireland.
In Scenario 1 the new total (order of magnitude of) LSA areas in Scotland would be about 150.
There would thus be a total of approximately 1,226 LSA areas in the UK.


C1 Implications for England

England is more complex than the other countries in that it has both two level districts and 'Town Councils' . It is not possible to know without local knowledge which town councils are still acting as such with a Mayor and Town Council. Town councils and population sometimes conflict in selecting the most important centres of an existing local government district . Town Councils also often occur in districts that would otherwise be considered urban and not for subdivision. Surrey & Bedfordshire considered below offer difficult examples of choices to be made.

In Surrey for instance, which for the purposes of Scenario 1 we have regarded as a non rural county there are 4 'Town Councils'.
In Reigate & Banstead (population 118,000 density 9.12 people per hectare) there is Horley(pop 18,685), and in Waverley there are 3; Haslemere(15,172), Farnham(35,492) and Godalming (20,126).
Towns like Leatherhead in Mole Valley and Staines in Spelthorne have not been rural for a long time and so are not listed as parishes.
It is proposed in Scenario 1 that
In densely populated districts such as Reigate and Banstead (population 118,000 density 9.12, four times the UK national average of 2.38 and the Scenario 1 cut off point) town councils be ignored ie even though there is a Mayor of Horley we should not have an LSA area based on Horley (as a southmost appendage to) in the existing district of Reigate & Banstead.

In Waverley (pop density 3.28 population 113,212) the density is less than 1.5 times the national average. and there are Mayors in the 3 Town Council parishes which contain over 60% of the population of the district.
Because of the relatively low density and the existence of 3 substantial town council districts we would treat the district as rural and subdivide it based on Farnham, Godalming and Haslemere and their surrounding parishes.
It is proposed that all 3 town council towns of Farnham, Godalming and Haslemere form the centres of the new LSA areas in Waverley.

In Bedfordshire (semi-rural county);
There is 1 town council, Kempston (pop 15,563), in Bedford district (density 2.81, pop 132,644). Bedford itself is not listed as a parish or Town Council and it has presumably been an Urban Council since before 1974.
Bedford district has a population density of 2.81 and therefore in Scenario 1 does not qualify as rural for subdivision. It has only one town council. Kempston town is also close enough to Bedford to be regarded as a suburb of Bedford.
So even though there is a Mayor of Kempston in Scenario 1 it is proposed that we should not have an LSA area based on Kempston.
ie There will be no change to the North Bedfordshire District

In Mid-Bedfordshire seven is a good number (pop/15,000) for new LSA areas
There are 6 town councils with mayors in Mid Bedfordshire (108,113); Ampthill (6099), Arlesley (4263), Biggleswade (12,734), Flitwick, (10,833), Potton (4162) and Sandy(8797).
Cranfield (4,405) and Stotfold (6,407)are the only other parishes with more than 4,000 population.
Should we choose the seven largest or the 6 towns with mayors or both?

It is proposed that all 8 parishes named above form the centres of the new LSA areas in Mid-Bedfordshire.

In South Bedfordshire (urban density 5.12 pop 108,000) is based around 3 Town Councils; Leighton Linslade(31,167), Houghton Regis (15,762) and Dunstable (32,232) .
Houghton Regis is very close to Dunstable and would not be a separate centre. It is therefore disregarded as a potential LSA centre.
Leighton Linslade could form a separate centre.
There are two other fairly large parishes in South Bedfordshire; Toddington (pop 4,224) and Caddington and Slip End (pop 5463)
It is proposed that they be included in one of the two proposed centres.

It is proposed, even though the population density of South Bedfordshire is 5.12 (cf. 2.38 as normal cut off) on town council grounds that these two towns (Dunstable and Leighton Linslade) form the centres of the two new LSA areas in South-Bedfordshire.
There are no other rural (low density) districts in Bedfordshire.

C2 Implications for Northern Ireland
There is a fairly fundamental different nature of local government organisation in this province.
The House in its letter of 27 May 1999 said that in discussing Northern Ireland a distinction needs to be made between solidly urban districts like Belfast and
'… those which consist of very large rural areas which may need to be subdivided for the purpose of Local Spiritual Assembly formation.
and as there are no smaller civil boundaries, advises the use of commonly accepted towns and villages and geographical factors
There are no huge areas and most rural districts are defined into an intuitively natural pattern.
There are 7 of the 26 counties which are 'urban' (with a population density greater than 2.38 people per hectare.) In this scenario these will not be subdivided
They are, mapped with population density, population and average diameter in Appendices 4 and 5 and are; Belfast, North Down, Castlereagh, Newtonabbey, Carrickfergus, Craigavon, and Derry
Most, (17 of the 19) 'rural' districts (density less than 2.38) are based around a dominant county town and have an average equivalent circle diameter of 17 miles.
Fermanagh, for example, which has has the largest average diameter at 30.4 miles. has a population of 54,033 and is based around Enniskillen (pop 11,436). The only other towns in Fermanagh with over 1,000 people are Lisnaskea at 2,457 and Irvinestown at 1,906.
Strabane Omagh and Newry & Mourne also have diameters > 20 miles but transport is not a problem as driving time between Enniskillen and Omagh is only 32min., Omagh to Strabane is 24 min and Strabane to Londonderry is 19 minutes.

In general there are no large sized towns within these 17 rural districts except the county town which forms its centre.
Although it would be possible to define say 3 new LSA areas for each rural district, (most are about 50,000 in population) along the lines of North Cookstown district, Cookstown Town and South Cookstown district, this would impose an unnatural structure upon what is an existing intuitively natural arrangement.
We have therefore, for this scenario, disregarded the normal rules.
.
As a possible alternative scenario the following two high population districts which are not based around their 'county town' could be considered for subdivision. They are of relatively high population but do not reach the critical density;
Lisburn (pop 99,458) is very close to being 'urban' with a density of 2.23 (cf. 2.38) but could be subdivided into two areas based around Dunmurry (pop 12,771) & Lisburn (pop 42,110) Newry & Mourne (pop 82,943) could be subdivided into Kilkeel (pop 6,123), Newry (pop 22,975) & Warrenpoint (pop 5,637). Apart from the sparsley populated Mourne Mountains this district too is quite urban based around the Newry canal and the North coast of Carlingford Lough.

So for this Scenario 1 - it is proposed that we make no changes to the LSA areas in Northern Ireland.
C3 Implications for Scotland

In Scotland there are 17 rural Unitary Councils (out of 32) with equivalent diameters greater than 20 miles. These are;
Aberdeenshire equiv. .diam. 55.60 miles, Angus 32.76 miles,
Argyle & Bute 44.35, Dumfries & Galloway 56.06, East Ayshire 25.00, Fife (urban) 25.67, Highland, 111.52, Moray 33.02, North Ayrshire 20.78, Orkney Isles 21.89, Perth & Kinross51.19, Scottish Borders 48.13, Shetland Isles 26.86, South Ayreshire 24.31, South Lanarkshire29.55, Stirling 32.85, Western Isles 37.69 miles
To these can be added East Lothian & Midlothian, both low density districts, to form the list of rural Unitary Counties to be considered for sub division
Of the old Scottish regions, 26 out of 55 have equivalent diameters less than 20 miles leaving 29 with larger diameters.
In Scotland there are no 'Town Councils' but only parishes. Having sorted the parishes population and area figures into the old region & district within Unitary Council it becomes feasible to subdivide the districts in a similar way as for districts in England.

So for instance in Aberdeenshire we can subdivide Banff & Buchan (Pop 85303) into six new LSA areas as follows. Select the six most populous
PETERHEAD (pop 20789), FRASERBURGH (pop 12917),
GAMRIE (pop 5448), TURRIFF (pop 5049),
BANFF (pop 4402), CRUDEN (pop 3415)
The other 22 parishes can then be allocated by local specialists on a best fit basis.
It is proposed in this Scenario 1 that the above parishes form the new LSA areas in Banff & Buchan.
(NB It illustrates the danger of a superficial view that Mintlaw is not proposed as a centre. It is the centre of the adjacent parishes of Longside, Old Deer and New Deer which together have a population of 9,000. Hopefully these glitches can be resolved by local experts at the second stage.)

Similarly select the 5 most populous parishes in Gordon (pop 76,642) namely;
ELLON (pop 9770), SKENE (pop 9635), INVERURIE (pop 8647),
HUNTLY (pop 4696), KINTORE (pop 3986),
The other parishes can then be allocated by local specialists on a best fit basis.
It is proposed in this Scenario 1 that the above parishes form the new LSA areas in Gordon.

Similarly select the 4 most populous parishes in Kincardine & Deeside (pop 53,442) namely;
FETTERESSO (Stonehaven) Pop 12,276 BANCHORY-TERNAN Pop 7,569
BANCHORY-DEVENICK Pop 7,440 ABOYNE AND GLEN TANAR Pop 2,582 The two Banchorys may be a single town in which case they should be amalgamated. The other parishes can then be allocated by local specialists on a best fit basis.
It is proposed in this Scenario 1 that the above parishes form the new LSA areas in Kincardine & Deeside
There are no other districts in Aberdeenshire
There would thus be 15 new LSA areas in Aberdeenshire (pop 226,530)
in Scenario 1. They would have an average population of approximately 15,000.
C4 Implications for Wales


The Welsh Urban Councils are; Wrexham, Flintshire, Neath Port Talbot, Glamorgan Vale, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhonda, Cynon Taff (est area), Caerphilly, Swansea (est area), Blaenau Gwent, Newport, Torfaen, Cardiff, Bridgend
In Scenario 1 these are not to be changed.

The 8 Welsh Unitary districts with large area (greater than 20 miles notional diameter ie diameter of a circle of the same area) are;
Powys 50.5 miles diam, Gwynedd 35.4 miles diam,
Carmarthenshire 34.3 miles diam, Ceredigion 29.7 miles diam,
Pembrokeshire 27.9 miles diam, Conwy 23.3 miles diam, Monmouthshire 20.5 miles diam, Denbighshire 20.4 miles diam,

The 9 Welsh Rural Councils (with population density less than 2.38 people per hectare) to be subdivided are; Denbighshire, Conwy, Anglesey Isle, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire, Gwynedd, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Powys.
(same as above but including Anglesy which has a notional diameter of only 18.7 miles and density of 0.99 people per hectare.)

Consider Powys as an example;
There are 15 Town Councils in Powys (pop 123,600 area 517,900 hect, density 0.24, equivalent diameter 50.5 mile). These are Brecon, Builth, Hay, Knighton, Llandrindod Wells, Llanfair Caereinion, Llandidloes, Llanwrtyd Wells, Machynlleth, Montgomery, Newton & Llanllwchaiarn , Presteigne, Rhavader, Talgart, and Welshpool.
If Powys was to be subdivided around these towns the average poulation is a little low at about 8,000. The average area would be about 34,500 hectares or 23.1 miles equivalent diameter which is a little high. The average density would be 0.23.
When detailed town populations are available we can rethink but for the interim;
under Scenario 1 it is proposed that we select the Powys town councils as the centre of the Powys LSA areas
.

C5 Implications for Isle of Man

The Isle of Man as a whole would normally under Scenario 1 count as urban with a population density of 3.01 (cf UK national average 2.38) However as it is an important island we consider it for subdivision as follows
With a total population of nearly 70,000 (almost half of which are very close to the capital) we can select about 4 or 5 centres as follows;
There are 9 Isle of Man Councils.
Of them;
Douglas (pop 22,214), Peel (pop 3,829), Ramsey (pop 7,000) and Port Erin (3,038) each have population densities greater than 10. (See appendix 12 for details)
Onchan has a high population of 8,500 but is within 2 miles of Douglas & so will be included in the area centred there.
Castletown pop 3,152 and Port Mary are close to Port Erin and would be included in that district as a South Man district..
Kirk Michael has a population of 1,044 and is less than 4 miles from Peel so will be included with Peel in an East Man LSA area.
No area has a diameter greater than 5 miles.

It is proposed, for the Isle of Man, under Scenario 1 there be 4 proposed new LSA areas. ie.Douglas & Onchan (pop 30,714), East Man including Peel & Kirk Michael (pop 4,863), Ramsey (pop 7,000), South Man (Ports Erin, Mary & Castletown) (pop 7,800) each form the centres of 4 proposed new LSA areas
E Recommendations

The National Spiritual Assembly is respectfully asked to consider the above Scenario as presented and to either request approval from the Universal House of Justice or itself suggest appropriate changes.
The Regional Councils are asked to identify a liaison member to comment on more detailed findings for their region and to assist in finding local experts to help determine boundaries in detail.



F Request Opinions

The Boundary Commission would like to hear the views of interested parties as to how well the scenario presented reflects the criteria set by the Universal House of Justice and what changes would be necessary to improve it.
Please email Graham Jenkins graham@jenks.demon.co.uk with your comments.



G The Way Forward?

The next stage after agreement in principle is achieved is to request the help of local experts to assist in selecting centres and determining boundaries of the new LSA areas. These experts should have a good geographical knowledge of their respective localities and be able to contribute, alongside the existing Local Spiritual Assemblies in determining centres and boundaries.It would also be helpful, but not necessary, if they were able to communicate by email.
Expertise would also be desirable for unopened districts and other sparsely populated areas (eg Ross & Cromarty.)

Once the proposed new local areas are defined in detail the UK Bah«'Í Community will face a number of challenges. We will need to consider how this reorganisation will affect the Bah«'Í Community - Which Spiritual Assemblies will lapse or be gained and which of the new areas will remain unopened? What will be our new goal districts and how will this affect teaching plans?


Appendices
Available by request

1 Population Table for English Unitary Councils
2 Sample population Table for UK districts within Counties
3 Map of Bedfordshire
4 Map of Northern Ireland
5 Population Table for Northern Ireland
6 Maps of Scotland
7 Map of Aberdeenshire
8 Sample population table for Aberdeenshire
9 Map of Wales
10 Population Table for Wales
11 Map of Isle of Man
12 Population Table for Isle of Man
13 Population Table English Metropolitan Boroughs

Additional Tables
Available by request

A
B English Districts within Counties
C English Unitary Boroughs
D Isle of Man Administration
E English Metropolitan Boroughs
F Scottish Parishes within Region
G Northern Ireland Disfctricts
H Welsh Unitary Councils
I
J
K 33 London Boroughs



To return to see the first half of this report click here.

To return to the Boundary commission main menu contents click here.